DFS

It’s time Derek Carr gets his flowers. Behind the disaster that is the Raiders, he is averaging 19.27 (No. 11) fantasy points per game and has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game since week 9. What he lacks in efficiency, he makes up for with his aggression. He’s airing it out with 9.1 (No. 5) Air Yards per Attempt. With 30 (No. 3) Money Throws, we’re even seeing a clutch gene from Carr. He’s been automatic since week 9 and is a top-12 option against a Rams defense that has given up nearly 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks.

Amari Cooper disappointed last week despite the highly anticipated return of Deshaun Watson. He posted only eight fantasy points on nine targets. However he led the Browns with 96 Air Yards.  He is clearly Watson’s primary pass catcher in this offense.  Look for Amari to bounce back this week against the Bengals. He can be rostered confidently in all formats.

D.J. Moore returns from bye as the Air Yards value play of the week! Perhaps the fourth time is a charm as Moore scored a season high 20.3 with the Panthers utilizing, Sam Darnold, their fourth quarterback this season. Since the trade of Christian McCaffrey, Moore is the focal point of the Panthers offense and sports a league leading 44.6-percent Air Yards share. Play him in all lineups this week.

Chris Olave is the clear alpha wideout for the Saints. The rookie has stepped up big for the team, leading them in both Targets (50) and Receiving Yards (433). I like Olave’s ceiling on any given week as he’s cleared the 100-yard receiving mark three times already this season.

Godwin is the preferred option in this week’s matchup after shredding the Browns for 12/110/1. Godwin has been reliable, having seen double-digit Targets in five of his last six contests.

We will work under the assumption Vegas is sharp about the 49ers playing from ahead in Week 13. This means San Francisco has to find scoring somehow and production from one of their many weapons, especially in the end zone. We’re choosing Kittle to do that for us because this season the Dolphins have allowed the No. 6-most receiving yards per game and third-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

In his last three games, Robert Woods has had 7, 7, and 6 targets. During this stretch, he managed a 6-69-0 stat line against Jaire Alexander and the Packers has SIX red zone targets total. Woods’ season has been a disaster as a whole, but that’s why he’s still available in 60-percent of Sleeper leagues.

Amari Cooper is this week’s Air Yards value play! Cooper has exceeded expectations this season finishing as a weekly WR1 almost 50-percent of the weeks in which he plays. He has seen 573 Air Yards through his past four games after seeing 245 Air Yards last week. While Deshaun Watson will be taking over for Jacoby Brissett as quarterback after returning from his suspension, Cooper’s stranglehold on the Browns’ receiving game should not be affected. Fire up Cooper without hesitation in DFS this week.

Alec Pierce saw a team-high 47-percent Air Yard Share in Week 11 and now faces a Steelers secondary that has been repeatedly exposed over the top (No. 2 in explosive pass plays of 20+yards allowed). His Anytime Touchdown scoring prop is sitting at +290 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Pat Friermuth has been a security target for Pickett. His 22-percent Target Share is No. 3 best at his position just behind Travis Kelce. Friermuth has posted two top-four TE performances in his last five games to boot. To the detriment of his wide receiver team-mates, Friermuth has cleared a 30+-percent Target Share in two straight games.

Rachaad White’s 3.6 true yards per carry is nothing to write home about, and that number is so low in part to how beat up the Bucs’ offensive line has been. But luckily, they get the Browns and the league’s worst run defense according to Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA metric. White looks like an RB1 option this week if Fournette can’t go. Both would be RB2s in the event Fournette can go.

I sought a correlation between Bengals pass-catchers. My educated guess was Hayden Hurst would eat against a Steelers secondary that would primarily be focused on WR1 Tee Higgins. Instead, Higgins stomped all over the stat sheet in a 37-30 shootout with nine receptions on 13 targets for 148 yards. Hurst logged just two receptions on three targets for 28 yards. We paired this duo with a CeeDee Lamb alpha game, but the Cowboys ran all over the Vikings and didn’t need Lamb to take over to win 40-3. The third-year wideout finished with a season-low five targets, producing five receptions for 45 yards. Blah.

50-percent of Sleeper leagues are starting D.J. Moore with the Carolina Panthers getting ready to face the Denver Broncos and their tough secondary. Moore is top-10 in targets (82) and Air Yards (920), but his season has been hindered by the plethora of pernicious Panthers passers under center.