We are halfway through the regular season already. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props: Week 10! As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
Yes, Terry McLaurin has seen 8+ targets in each game since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback while facing touch matchups and secondaries in the Packers and Colts, but the Heinicke-McLaurin pairing went 0-2 against Darius Slay and the Eagles last season on its attempts to get McLaurin to finish inside the top-30 at his position.
I’m fading Josh Palmer and recommending his teammate, DeAndre Carter. Obviously, monitor Keenan Allen’s status, but he didn’t practice on Thursday and not trending toward playing at the time of this writing. In the past two games, Carter has been forced into play. He’s responded with snap shares over 80-percent, over 6 targets per game, and over 70+ Air Yards per game.
Amari Cooper returns from a bye week as the undisputed target hog on the Browns. He has topped 100 Air Yards in three of his past four games including a 126 Air Yards showing in Week 8 in which he finished as the WR7. Look for Cooper to continue his fantasy dominance against an exploitable Dolphins secondary this week.
Marcus Mariota’s middle name must be ‘miracle’ because not many predicted he’d be the Falcons starting quarterback this long. Despite 30 (No. 12) Deep Ball Attempts, he throws one of the worst deep balls in the league. He missed Kyle Pitts for a walk-in long ball by a mile on Sunday. He’s the poster child for an inefficient backup, yet he produces 0.64 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Dropback. While the Falcons run near a league-low in pass attempts, it’s worth noting that Mariota has thrown for over 300 air yards in two straight close Game Scripts, including a game vs Carolina. It might be ugly, and there will be low points, but Mariota is a QB2 with a big-play upside and a rushing role. I expect a QB2 performance in what should be a slower grudge match on a slow week.
The Dolphins were No. 9 in fantasy points allowed to receivers entering Week 9, where they allowed seven receptions and a touchdown to Darnell Mooney. Miami has allowed at least 24 points in six games this season, with teams passing often in shootouts against the Dolphins’ fast offense. If Cleveland finds itself in a shootout, Cooper will be utilized exponentially more.
The Packers have not allowed over 220 passing yards since Week 3, snagging four interceptions over their last three games. Green Bay’s secondary has shown an ability to contain opposing receiving corps well this season. They do have some injuries on the defense, but Jaire Alexander and company have the secondary locked down. Expect the Cowboys to instead attack the Packers’ suspect run defense. Prescott has a tough fantasy matchup this week.
With Mark Andrews listed as doubtful, preseason darling Isaiah Likely will be thrust into a significant role as the team’s top tight end. If he’s able to sniff Andrew’s elite 89-percent Snap Share, he’ll make for a strong play.
Kamara has come on lately, recording top-10 RB performances in three of his last four games. Last week’s triple touchdown outburst broke the seal after being held scoreless to begin the year.
Vegas has the total points line of this game set at 49.5. The total is tied for the highest on the Week 9 Sunday slate. This means the books expect offense. It is no surprise that since the departure of Davante Adams, the No. 1 option in this Packers attack has been Aaron Jones. What’s been slightly difficult to project is how much of his involvement is split between rushing and receiving. While he has cleared this rushing number only three times this season, everything points to the value in the over in Week 9.
The Cardinals’ weakness on defense is yards after catch (they allow the most in the NFL). Meanwhile, Lockett is No. 55 in Yards After Catch with 83 and averaging 1.4 per target.
Marshall’s snaps, routes run, and targets have gone up each week, culminating in a 9-target Week 8 performance where he finished with 12.7 (No. 29) fantasy points. In Week 7, Carter had a 94-percent Snap Share, saw 7 targets, and finished with over 70 Air Yards.
The Week 9 TNF Showdown features the Eagles at the Texans. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. Without further ado, let’s see what Philadelphia and Houston have in store for us as the Eagles look to continue their reign of perfection.
D.J. Moore has graduated to the paying up section after two consecutive face melting performances as the Panthers primary offensive weapon. He has seen double digit targets in back-to-back weeks and saw 250 Air Yards last week which included this dope pass from P.J. Walker. Look for D.J. Moore to continue on this trend against Eli Apple and the Bengals in week nine. This is likely the last time he is priced below $6,000, get him in your cash lineup while you can, although he may be too chalky for tournaments.
For the second consecutive week Darnell Moony is the top Air Yards Value play. He finished last week with 12 fantasy points securing five receptions for 70 yards. Mooney posted these numbers despite seeing a season low 28 Air Yards, a figure that will likely increase to his season average of 70.9 this week. He remains an intriguing play in all formats heading into a potential barnburner against the Dolphins.
