Strategy

The perpetually under valued Brandin Cooks resides on the top of the value play list, a place he may as well call home. While some fantasy prognosticators were scared off of Cooks because of a perceived poor Texans offense and the potential emergence of sleeper candidate Nico Collins, both of those narratives were laid to rest week one. Davis Mills was sufficiently average throwing the football posting a 95.2 True Passer Rating (no. 12 among quarterbacks), and Cooks handedly out-targeted Collins 12 to 3.  Cooks is a strong play in all formats.

Corey Davis remained the Jets primary wide receiver target despite the off-season hype of second-year wide receiver Elijah Moore and rookie first round pick Garrett Wilson. Davis out targeted both of his teammates and was the Jets’ leader in Air Yards. With Joe Flacco as his quarterback, and Davis likely seeing coverage from all-pro Denzel Ward this week, I’d shy away from exposure but if forced to play him I would reserve him as a cash play only. 

Buffalo, this year’s Super Bowl favorite, opened the 2022 season as road favorites against the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams. They lived up to the advanced billing, crushing the defending champs 31-10, and it wasn’t even that close.

Last year, the Bills stopped teams by preventing big plays. This year, it seems they’re going to prevent little plays, too. They completely stomped on the Rams’ revamped offensive line. The Bills defense sacked Matthew Stafford seven times. Last year, he didn’t see his seventh sack until Week 8.

A.J. Terrell finished 2021 ranked No. 1 in Coverage Rating, Catch Rate Allowed, Passer Rating Allowed, and Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas has gone on to play in one game since their Week 13 matchup in 2020.

Amari Cooper had three top-10 scoring weeks last season. Two of those cornerbacks primarily tasked to guard him are out of the NFL. Outside of those games, Cooper had ZERO top-24 performances in 2021.

One of the more popular approaches to team building in fantasy football is the Hero RB strategy. Some may call it “modified zero RB,” others may call it “anchor RB,” and others may call it what it used to be known as “punting RB2.”

I built a regression model to help project and find edges in the world of football. The results were exceedingly profitable.

I saw Mark Andrews as an efficient target hog who operates down the field with a top-five fantasy finish already on his resume. Looking back, I regret not pounding the table for him more. However, we can’t simply ignore the effects of preseason injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards that certainly influenced Baltimore to air out the football more often.

Rondale Moore was barely old enough to vote and produced 1,471 yards of offense. I’m far from a film grinder, but his freshman tape is beyond impressive. I learned not to buy into purely the landing spot and especially not to obsess over coach-centric analysis. I already knew better than that, but I fell into the trap anyway. No matter what I believed about Moore, his 9.4 (1st-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Yards Per Reception should’ve been a red flag.

No less than three league-winning wide receivers emerged from ambiguous situations in 2021. You won’t have trouble naming them. Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase and Deebo Samuel all recorded top-5 fantasy seasons in 2021 and ascended to wide receiver royalty. They all came from truly ambiguous WR situations: 2021 was just one season. But over the last six, trends have developed which have implications for fantasy WRs in the future. More top-scoring players will emerge from ambiguous WR situations in 2022 and beyond.

The rookie hype is real in fantasy, but the hype is well-founded. The NFL is enamored with rookie wide receivers, too. There were 17 wide receivers taken in the first three rounds of the 2022 NFL draft, tied with 1994 and 2007 for most rookie WRs drafted in the first three rounds ever. Fantasy drafting is all about finding edges. Many fantasy managers move away from ambiguity because they equate it with uncertainty. Actually drafting wide receivers from ambiguous situations is a surer thing than seemingly more certain situations.  Move toward ambiguity when drafting receivers!

The final Pareto Principles of the year is underway. This column focuses primarily on the strategy and game theory elements of DFS. I do not discuss the individual matchups of players. Instead I am basing my stances on what the field is expected to do, and how to capture a similar ceiling with a unique build.

The conference championship is no time to cling to summer romance. Since returning from injury in Week 17, Elijah Mitchell has just six catches in four games for 18 yards. He also has just one score in that time, losing high-leverage carries to Deebo Samuel and all passing downs to Kyle Juzczyk. His high carry total provides a floor but not an insurmountable one if he’s kept from the end zone.

There are three quarterbacks in this Conference Championship round with three stacks you can feel confident in for DFS. If you want to get spicy, you could even include Jimmy Garoppolo in hopes the 49ers can’t run the ball, George Kittle gets involved, and Deebo Samuel takes a couple of dump-offs to the house. However, in the playoffs thus far, you haven’t won money unless your quarterback put up over 30 points.

The Sazerac has two possible bases to start with, pending on who you ask. Some believe the official cocktail of Louisiana and staple of New Orleans used a cognac due to the area’s connection to French spirits. Others believe it was made with rye whiskey and is currently is the more popular build. It’s the perfect cocktail to discuss the Conference Championship for DFS. Make the base with your liquor preference as long as it’s one of the two, just as this slate will likely have two options to stack.

Prior to the year, our excitement regarding Ryan Tannehill was based in his high-efficiency paired with elite weapons. For the first time since Week 7, all of Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones will on the field for the Titans. While I am loath to attack the first game of a playoff slate, my exception may be with Tannehill. Play the former Aggie stacked with A.J. Brown and a bring back of your choice and you ride with a unique construction generating leverage off Joe Burrow and Derrick Henry.

Packers-49ers is a high volatility game with two slow-paced teams. However, the high-level skill players in this game provides a ceiling which will not be efficiently rostered in DFS contests. In their earlier meeting, these teams lit up the scoreboard for 58 combined points. In a similar shootout,  it is plausible Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel are the two highest scoring receivers on the slate. I will also be over-weight vs. the field on Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle in this game which offers asymmetric upside for its projected ownership.