With field salivating to play Gabriel Davis this week, pivot off the chalk to an underplayed Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs as the unquestioned target alpha in that offense. In the wake of the DeAndre Hopkins injury, A.J. Green is being forgotten about despite his fantasy friendly role in Arizona’s high-powered offense. He’s too cheap to ignore this week.
With the field salivating over the Buccaneers Bills game, let’s identify the best leverage points in order to build tournament winning upside lineups. Paying up for Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill creates a unique stack opportunity on discounted popularity with the highest ceiling on the slate. Or look to the Cowboys with Michael Gallup as a central piece of the offense still priced in the mid $5k range as part of a Dak Prescott stack.
Pick your poison. Chargers-Bengals is the highest scoring game on the slate with two defenses susceptible to the running back in different ways: one on the ground, one in the air. Both running backs have the opposite team’s kryptonite. Austin Ekeler has been on fire, accumulating 14.22 points in the air over the last five games and 17.9 over the previous three. As for Joe Mixon, he is the third-highest scoring running back on the slate, just two points less per game than Ekeler.
Jonathan Taylor should continue his rampage on the ground. Look for the Colts to get Michael Pittman more involved as we close in on the playoffs. With the Colts in comeback mode, Brevin Jordan against one of the worst secondaries facing tight ends in 2021 is an appetizing play as he forced Jordan Akins to the inactive list. Pharaoh Brown is still the lead tight end, but he’s obviously there to block. I’m predicting over 30 yards and a touchdown to the rookie. Nico Collins has a similar outlook.
As heavy favorites at expensive salaries (over 16K for the stack), the Matthew Stafford-Cooer Kupp pair should go under-rostered relative to upside. The Rams are tied for the highest implied total on the slate at over 30 points. Working in our favor is the fact that this a team that doesn’t take their foot off the gas when winning.
Tua Tagovailoa isn’t throwing as deep as Matthew Stafford, only 6.6 (No. 34 among qualified quarterbacks) Air Yards per Attempt, but is completing passes at an elite level. His 75.3-percent True Completion Percentage ranks No. 2, while he’s also top five in completion percentage in the redzone, clean pockets, and off play action. With nearly a $1K price jump over the last two weeks, Jaylen Waddle looks like an excellent Buy High opportunity this week as other fantasy gamers balk at the increase.
You can mix Miles Sanders into Giants-Eagles game stacks after he registered a season-high in carries with his second-most red zone attempts, returning from his first game since getting injured. His pricing alone makes for a sexy play, not to mention the Giants rank No. 28 against the running back. He is just $100 above Chuba Hubbard and $200 above Giovani Bernard and Mike Davis.
The Bucs have allowed 13 receiving touchdowns to only six rushing touchdowns on the year. The Carson Wentz-Michael Pittman connection will be alive and well. Not only does Pittman have 81 (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) targets, he also has 11 (No. 16) red zone targets and 516 (No. 11) Completed Air Yards. Regardless of who is in coverage, Pittman is going to eat.
On a slate notably lacking in QB star power, strategy must be adjusted for building GPP tournament lineups. By paying up for Tom Brady, fantasy gamers unlock a floor and ceiling combo not possible with any other QB. Paying down for Cam Newton will be more popular, but by stacking him with D.J. Moore, leverage is available on those looking to only play Newton for his rushing.
The Ravens-Bears matchup is one where you’re swinging for the fences. It could smash with big plays as the Ravens allow a 12-percent (No. 30) explosive play rate in the air and 14-percent (No. 30) on the ground. The Bears aren’t far behind, with 10-percent (No. 22) in the air and also 14-percent (No. 29) on the ground. Explosions are everywhere behind the league’s most dynamic quarterback in Lamar Jackson and an emerging star in Fields. However, it could also finish as a game you didn’t want to touch.
Initially, the Packers-Vikings game was going into my Week 11 DFS Matchups to Target. However, after breaking down the numbers and seeing the roster percentages, I’m fading a heavy stack and hoping for what we saw with the Packers-Chiefs in Week 10. The Vikings poor defensive rank against the quarterback is inflated by three rushing quarterbacks: Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson. They have only allowed two quarterbacks to hit the 300-yard bonus thus far. In addition, Aaron Rodgers has only hit it once in 2021 and only has one game with three passing touchdowns.
George Kittle is my favourite play on the entire slate. Since returning to the lineup, he leads the 49ers with a 26-percent target share. He presents leverage off Jeff Wilson, as well as Deebo Samuel. With Darren Waller and Travis Kelce playing in the slate’s highest total games, Kittle has an array of factors driving his ownership downward. It is fully within the range of outcomes for Kittle to be the slate’s highest-scoring tight end with a huge performance that leverages off multiple popular plays.
Priced up despite a post-bye efficiency dip, Ezekiel Elliott is my favourite play in the KC-DAL contest. At $7,700, Elliott is unlikely to be among the slate’s top-owned running backs. His price is prohibitive to pairings with Chiefs stacks, which are more comfortably paired with the $4,200 Michael Gallup. Elliott, despite a muted role in the pass-game this year, sees his highest snap rates in trailing script, where he is relied on as a blocker and outlet. For this reason, I think he pairs well as a differentiating factor in Chiefs stacks.
When building GPP tournament lineups, a barbell approach to roster share is key for achieving tournament winning upside through differentiation. We explore a few unique stack possibilities to get that leverage off the popular Cowboys and Chiefs stacks this week. With a few exciting games in the late window, late swap possibilities become a critical consideration for a few underlooked QB plays.
Joe Burrow is a good example of the reason we put so much stock into team and game totals. This year, efficiency is the name of the game. Now in a game with a large total, we’re expecting that volume to jump up a bit, while ideally maintaining that same efficiency resulting in a huge day for fantasy. Ja’Marr Chase’s 17 Deep Targets rank No. 5 while his 41.9-percent Air Yard Share ranks No. 4. He’s consistently making big plays down the field and can break a slate any week.
Pending injury news, the common structure this week should include one elite running back, paired with one of the free squares, and a game stack around it in the wide receiver slots. This generally presents an either/or question for you to consider in each lineup. Would you rather pair one of the top-owned game-stacks with a unique running back construction? Or would you rather stack an under the radar game and give yourself the chance to play any running backs you wish?
I always say in this column that my goal is to submit lineups that require the fewest number of correct assumptions to win. It is not uncommon to see situations such as last week where a high-ceiling stack such as the Chargers is less than five-percent owned in a small field. Because you are correlating one under-owned decision, you can play far more chalk-pieces around it. I’m playing three-four under-owned players, but it’s all correlated to one singular outcome. This is always my favourite way to play small-fields.
