Strategy

There are some great running backs I’d love to play in the DFS Week 10 matchups, but the pricing makes it difficult. However, if you think Washington can come back firing after a bye, then a contrarian play could pay off tremendously. Taylor Heinicke offers rushing upside, so you don’t need to stack a bunch of players around him. In fact, I might argue you can run him naked. However, J.D. McKissic or Terry McLaurin will likely play a role in his success; meanwhile, don’t forget about DeAndre Carter. 

With fantasy gamers chasing the high point total in the Chargers Vikings game, find a way to get exposure without eating chalk through the Vikes passing game. Justin Jefferson is excelling this year in the red zone and on deep passes; sounds exactly like what you’re looking for in GPPs. Also, consider fading the recent struggles and going back to Josh Allen with one of the highest implied team totals for the week.

Aaron Jones should see significantly high roster levels if Davante Adams misses another matchup, and rightfully so. Keep an eye on A.J. Dillon as well. Rodgers is one of the best – if not the best – at finding open receivers downfield, yet Dillon still has a 22.6-percent target rate on routes run. With Jordan Love at the helm, Dillon just needs four or five to get in the end zone and return value.

Look for Dak Prescott to be a contrarian play, as most people will be fading this Denver-Dallas contest. Stacking him with Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper could net you two of the top options on the slate. Running it back with the aforementioned Jeudy or one of the running backs could be interesting as a dart throw. I know these running backs are more expensive than most dart throws, but trying to guess which one will be utilized is just that; a dart throw. 

Based on the flurry of injury news it is difficult to grasp where ownership will ultimately settle at a game level. One priority spot – if ownership remains under control – will be the Miami passing game against Houston. Tua Tagovailoa has been a strong fantasy option in every good matchup thus far and Houston presents the best there is. I love prioritizing pass-heavy offenses as heavy favourites as they are less prone to Game Script.

Is Amari Cooper underpriced this week at $5,700? absolutely. Will he be in my cash lineup? Certainly. But his inefficient salary does not make him any more likely to post 30-plus points. Fading a 20-percent (or higher?) rostered Cooper could eliminate a high percentage of the field should be bust, and even if he hits above his median, it’s unlikely to truly bury you.

Since returning from injury, Tua Tagovailoa is on pace to throw the second most passes per game. In a dream matchup against the Texans this week, pair him with Jaylen Waddle for maximum upside in GPP tournaments. Also explore a leverage option by paying up for the Cowboys to avoid Amari Cooper chalk.

The Titans-Colts matchup is always the highest scoring. However, two of the past three have hit at least 51 points. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, it’s typically the studs from each team who garner the points. Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman, and T.Y. Hilton generally are the players who succeed in these matchups. However, with all the injuries to both teams, it’s tough to predict who will be successful on either side. 

Chris Godwin could smash against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson while Mike Evans struggles against Marshon Lattimore like he typically does. Tom Brady is in play primarily because the Saints run defense is elite. There aren’t too many situations where Brady doesn’t rack up fantasy points. If Winston turns the ball over a ton, Brady could have five touchdowns. If this DFS Week 8 matchup becomes a shootout, Brady could have five touchdowns. The only way he doesn’t is if the Saints run defense falters. 

D.J. Moore has arrived as an elite, alpha receiver in 2021. He ranks No. 6 in Target Share, and No. 11 in Air Yards Share. While he’s suffered from inconsistent quarterback play, the chance to play Moore in an elite matchup projected under ten-percent ownership is an opportunity you cannot pass up. Diontae Johnson is eternally under-owned in DFS despite a 29-percent Target Share. While the matchup is not as juicy as Moore’s, Johnson has a role worth well above his $6,700 salary and few project to be paying for it.

This week offers another opportunity to test our heuristics on bring backs. Cincinnati, Buffalo, and the Rams are all among the best projected teams on the slate in games with spreads above ten points. Should you play both sides of these games or merely stick to the favourite? With the caveat that each play should be viewed in a vacuum, I think the answers spread widely here.

Tom Brady has taken a blow torch to opposing pass defenses this year, yet there’s still some lagging skepticism among DFS players. Capitalize by playing one of the highest floor and ceiling plays, paired with his slot WR Chris Godwin in a plus matchup this week against the Saints. Alternatively, get leverage off the popular high end WR plays by stacking Justin Herbert with Mike Williams in another of the league’s pass happiest offenses.

With the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers, Broncos, Browns, Colts, 49ers, Saints, and Seahawks all off the main slate, most would think it creates opportunity. However, for this week, in particular, I believe it establishes chalk. A combination of matchups and injuries limits the opportunities. 

Patrick Mahomes stacked with combinations of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be popular, and I’m not suggesting to fade them. However, lineups with Mahomes, Darrel Williams, and Mecole Hardman could make for an exciting turnout. Hill has hit on a 50-percent ROI thus far. If the Chiefs go up early, we could see a week where we could have pivoted to another player and seen variance from Mahomes builds. 

Lamar Jackson let down many DFS players last week as the Ravens running backs rushed for three touchdowns. Going back to him this week with his highest upside wide receiver will be an opportunity to leverage his more popular teammates. Also, see why playing the Titans passing game is a great contrarian angle to take in the highest scoring game of the week.

The final stack features Derek Carr and Henry Ruggs. Carr is playing some of the best ball of his career this year and doing so in a way ideal for fantasy owners. The main beneficiary of this play has been Ruggs. He’s turned the No. 2-ranked Average Target Distance (18.8 yards) into 350 (No. 9) Completed Air Yards and 445 (No. 14) receiving yards. He’s looking like the un-guardable deep threat promised out of Alabama last year.