Strategy

From the set of highest total games this week, Tom Brady makes the most sense as the QB for tournament lineups. He’s going against the “scariest” defense of the bunch and has virtually no rushing upside (half yard QB sneak TDs aside). As a result, he shouldn’t see a massive roster percentage. This week, our recommended pairing is Chris Godwin. He’s cheaper than Mike Evans while having a more consistent role in both games. He’s being featured in the slot (68 Slot Snaps ranks No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) and the red zone (his 5 Red Zone Targets rank No. 1) en route to 19 targets so far (No. 11).

Daniel Jones gives us all the ingredients we seek for tournament QBs. On top of all of that, he’s top three in QB carries and rushing yards so far. All that together has resulted in a top five fantasy QB this year. He gets the friendly Atlanta Falcons defense this week fresh off surrendering massive days to Jalen Hurts and Tom Brady. Sterling Shepard has seized the alpha role in New York. He leads the league in receptions with 16. He’s doing his damage out of the slot (his 75 Slot Snaps ranks No. 3) and near the line of scrimmage (his 9.4 Average Target Distance ranks No. 52).

DFS Week 2 matchups are going to be exciting. All four o-clock games are projected to go over 50 points, with the Eagles-49ers expected to do the same. In other words: You need to hit big. Three touchdowns and 300 yards from your quarterbacks shouldn’t be likely; it has to be a lock.

If there were ever a game to cite volume over matchup, Cowboys at Chargers would be the one. And not on the side of the Chargers. Keenan Allen is one of my favorite targets, if not my favorite in my top-rated DFS Week 2 matchup. However, the Cowboys receivers are a completely different story. Yes, the Cowboys have a prolific offense and this matchup is marked as one of the highest-scoring on the slate. We could see something similar to the Browns with a superb defense versus Chiefs elite-level offense from Week 1, except the Chargers defense could be the best in the league. 

If I had one regret last week, it was not opting for a Chiefs double-stack. Given the attraction of Cardinals-Titans and Eagles-Falcons, the Chiefs became underplayed relative to their upside and projection. Ultimately I made the choice to avoid lineups that forced me into playing multiple, cheap chalk receivers such as Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, and Marquez Callaway. However, with viable options such as Jaylen Waddle available and productive at low ownership, it was worth attempting.

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Chargers-Cowboys game may be high scoring this week. With an over-under of 54.5 and a tight spread, DFS players from near and far are making the pilgrimage to jam Chargers and Cowboys into their DraftKings lineups this week. In early week PFF ownership projections, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and Ceedee Lamb all rank among the top four rostered receivers. The first decision you need to make for each lineup this week is whether this game will be the focus of your entry. The rest of your lineup needs to be constructed around that basis from an ownership perspective.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it? We’re going right back to the Eagles this week. After smashing on Sunday, DraftKings raised Jalen Hurts’ price by only $100 to $6.5k. Devonta Smith received more of a price bump, but at $5.4k he’s still too cheap as the top option in this offense. DraftKings seems to not want to overreact to Week 1 with salaries, so take advantage in situations where we feel more confident coming out of last week.

This week when everyone is on Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb or Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, paying up slightly to pivot onto the Bills provides an appealing leverage point in tournaments. Another way to pivot off of chalky expensive stacks is to totally alter the structure of your lineup. By paying all the way down at $5.1K for Zach Wilson and $5.3K for WR1 Corey Davis, you free up copious salary to play other high end players the field can’t afford due to their stack.

At the beginning of a new season with uncertain target distributions, take bold stabs at prolific QBs and upside WRs for your stacks to gain leverage on the field through uniquely correlated roster construction in DFS tournaments. Jalen Hurts and new WR1 Devonta Smith provide just one tantalizing example.

The Jalen Hurts-Devonta Smith stack checks every box listed above and costs under $11k on DraftKings this week. In the dome in Atlanta, this game features a 48.5 over under total. Smith looks like the number one wideout in Philadelphia, but enters Week 1 as the fourth-cheapest team WR1 by PlayerProfiler projection and second-cheapest team WR1 by DK salary. Take advantage of the value while DK and other fantasy gamers worry about the rookie translating to the NFL and a nebulous Target Share.

Looking back to 2020, there was only one time a stack with a quarterback-pass catcher won the Millionaire Maker and the combined point total was 50 points or less: Week 8 when the Chiefs destroyed the Jets 35-9. There’s plenty of ways to find these players and matchups, whether it be the perfect positional advantages, bad defenses meeting incredible offenses, or two great quarterbacks going head to head. Finding these matchups is key to building the start to a great roster.

Let’s say you want to target the Steelers-Bills game. By stacking this game, you’re betting on it to be the highest scoring contest on the slate. With many strong plays to complete your stack, you want to target players who correlate with the game’s ceiling outcome. You’re banking on a octane performance from the Steelers to keep the Bills passing to Stefon Diggs. Your best bet for this is with Chase Claypool.

It’s possible we get an under-rostered Austin Ekeler if he is declared healthy by game-time after missing practice with a hamstring injury. On the other side, On the other side, Curtis Samuel has landed on IR after aggravating his groin, narrowing the target tree in Washington. Any combination of skinny stacks between Ekeler (if healthy), Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Logan Thomas will be a fixture in my tournament core this weekend.

Welcome to my series on tournament daily fantasy sports for PlayerProfiler. The Pareto Principals will embark on an overview of each slate with an eye towards theoretical, structural analysis. I will apply that to an intriguing lineup concept to employ in DFS tournaments that week; with an emphasis on limited entry, small to medium field contests.

My ‘Pareto-inspired’ play-style works best in environments which reward a big-hit, small-miss mentality, that prioritizes macro-level process over micro-level selections. If that’s not you, I think this column will still be a useful read in terms of helping grow your mindset for DFS, fantasy football, and probability-based thinking in general. If that is you, then I encourage you to play along with me this season.

Deshaun Watson leads the league in with 8.8 Yards per Attempt and his 88.5-percent True Completion Percentage is the No. 3-ranked mark among qualified quarterbacks. With a soft matchup at home against the Bengals, this looks like another big week. Brandin Cooks is still the WR to pair with Watson for the highest floor and ceiling. Fully healed from the neck injury, he is set to smash at only $6.2K this week on DraftKings.

Andy Dalton and Amari Cooper are both under $6K this week facing the Philadelphia Eagles at home in a dome in a game with the second-highest total on the slate. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup have been making plays over the last few weeks and are viable stacking combinations as well, but Cooper’s 8.2 Targets per Game rank No. 13 among qualified wide receivers. We’re banking on that volume in a game like this to be the best bet to maximize upside.

Priced almost $1000 less than Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray gives daily fantasy gamers the QB1 upside at a discount relative to the rest of the top tier QBs. That savings can be used to pay up for his top target DeAndre Hopkins, who has faced an incredibly difficult slate of corners over the last few weeks in Stephon Gilmore, Jalen Ramsey, and James Bradberry. Darius Slay isn’t practicing this week, which gives Hopkins even more potential to smash.

Since returning to the lineup in Week 12, Mitchell Trubisky has posted two top 10 fantasy QB performances. Yet DraftKings refuses to price him up, even as they face an average Minnesota Vikings defense in a dome. Allen Robinson’s price is rising, but there is still plenty of upside value left, and pairing him with Trubisky at only $5.5K provides sufficient salary relief to not have to compromise at other positions.