Fading a wide receiver with a 25.6-percent (No. 19) Target Share and 603 (No. 16) receiving yards is a gamble, but Michael Pittman has not finished as a top-30 WR since Week 6. This week Nico Collins gets the Washington Commanders, who allow the second-highest Average Target Distance and fourth-most Air Yards.
The Titans coaching staff are experts in ruining a party. They killed Tennessee’s Tanne-thrill ride when they thought A.J. Brown could be replaced by Treylon Burks. Tannehill’s 13 (No. 25) fantasy points per game are the lowest mark he’s seen since his 2012 rookie season. The arm talent is still there. He’s delivering a 7.8 (No. 13) Accuracy Rating and a 79.7-percent (No. 11) Catchable Pass Rate. Running under 24 pass plays per game, the veteran has only eclipsed 200 yards in three of his seven games this season. In those each of those games, he’s produced at least 19 fantasy points. Green Bay has kept anemic passing offenses at bay and can’t stop the run. This is the perfect formula for a disappointing low-end QB2 performance from Tannehill. Tannehill has big game upside, and he’s a boom-or-bust start in deeper 2QB/Superflex leagues.
The Lions entered Week 10 allowing the fourth-most QB rushing fantasy points. Justin Fields just ran all over them for 147 yards while three other QBs have passed 40 rushing yards against them. Allowing less than 24 points in a game just once this season, Detroit is a porous defense through the air and on the ground. Expect Daniel Jones to feast as a dual-threat this week.
While Higbee could see an uptick in targets this week, he faces a Saints defense that has been effective against TEs. New Orleans has not allowed more than 50 yards to an opposing TE group since Week 5. Isaiah Likely is the only TE to score a touchdown against Demario Davis and company this season.
The 49ers worked Elijah Mitchell in more substantially this week. He played a third of the snaps, splitting goal-line work and carries evenly. McCaffrey maintained dominance of the passing work. If this situation holds, it places McCaffrey more in line with early-season Austin Ekeler and peak Alvin Kamara rather than the potential 30-point-per-week supernova we thought we had last week. That being said, I would still be trading for McCaffrey. Trading early down volume for increased team scoring opportunities is a net positive from his time in Carolina for my money. He maintains an elite floor via the pass-game, and his ceiling in negative script or with a Mitchell injury is RB1 in a tier of his own.
The problem is the Falcons would rather not throw the ball ever to anyone. They take forever to snap the ball (No. 30 in Pace of Play), and when do eventually snap it, they run it (No. 3 in Team Run Plays per Game, No. 30 in Pass Attempts). This has been the case even when Cordarrelle Patterson is on the sidelines. On the season, they’ve chosen to hand to the ball to plodding backup rookie back Tyler Allgeier twice as many times as they’ve thrown to Pitts.
This is Betting the Spread: Week 10 in the NFL. Just because we were approaching .500 didn’t mean we wanted to go .500. After a scorching 10-4 week in Week 8, Week 9 didn’t treat us as well. A 5-5-2 mark puts us at 59-64-4 on the season. We still have plenty of time to get back to .500, but we’re also past the mid-point of the NFL season. Hopefully, we get there this week. Let’s get Week 10 rolling!
We are halfway through the regular season already. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props: Week 10! As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
Yes, Terry McLaurin has seen 8+ targets in each game since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback while facing touch matchups and secondaries in the Packers and Colts, but the Heinicke-McLaurin pairing went 0-2 against Darius Slay and the Eagles last season on its attempts to get McLaurin to finish inside the top-30 at his position.
I’m fading Josh Palmer and recommending his teammate, DeAndre Carter. Obviously, monitor Keenan Allen’s status, but he didn’t practice on Thursday and not trending toward playing at the time of this writing. In the past two games, Carter has been forced into play. He’s responded with snap shares over 80-percent, over 6 targets per game, and over 70+ Air Yards per game.
Amari Cooper returns from a bye week as the undisputed target hog on the Browns. He has topped 100 Air Yards in three of his past four games including a 126 Air Yards showing in Week 8 in which he finished as the WR7. Look for Cooper to continue his fantasy dominance against an exploitable Dolphins secondary this week.
Marcus Mariota’s middle name must be ‘miracle’ because not many predicted he’d be the Falcons starting quarterback this long. Despite 30 (No. 12) Deep Ball Attempts, he throws one of the worst deep balls in the league. He missed Kyle Pitts for a walk-in long ball by a mile on Sunday. He’s the poster child for an inefficient backup, yet he produces 0.64 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Dropback. While the Falcons run near a league-low in pass attempts, it’s worth noting that Mariota has thrown for over 300 air yards in two straight close Game Scripts, including a game vs Carolina. It might be ugly, and there will be low points, but Mariota is a QB2 with a big-play upside and a rushing role. I expect a QB2 performance in what should be a slower grudge match on a slow week.
